彭志行，博士，教授，博士生导师，十大体育外围平台网址附属泰州人民医院党委委员、副院长，十大体育外围平台网址青年教师联合会主席，江苏省新冠疫情防控专家组成员、十大体育外围平台网址赴疾控中心疫情防控工作队领队、传染病科技重大专项专家咨询委员会委员、江苏省青蓝工程中青年学术带头人。中国卫生统计学会卫生统计教育专业委员会常务理事、生物数学会理事。全国首届生物统计优秀青年学者奖、江苏省医学会科技进步奖、江苏省预防医学科技奖，江苏省医学新技术引进奖、全国大学生“挑战杯”一等奖。近年来主持国家自然科学基金4项、科技部国家科技重大专项专题3项、江苏省自然科学基金重点项目1项、江苏省社会发展基金重点项目1项，发表论文60篇，获国家知识产权局软件著作权授权10项、实用新型专利1项。
研究方向：传染病动力学模型、传染病时空模型及预测预警分析方法、医学现场研究中的统计理论与方法
联系方式：
地址：南京市江宁区龙眠大道101号十大体育外围平台网址至诚楼
电话：025-86868436
在研科研项目：
1. 国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于艾滋病抗病毒治疗的多尺度动力学模型研究”， 82073673，主持
2. 国家自然科学基金面上项目“新发呼吸道传染病预防控制的动力学模型研究”，81673275，主持
3. “十三五”国家传染病科技重大专项（专题）“艾滋病生物标志物及疫情预警预报模型研究”，2017ZX10001 -002-001，主持
4. “十三五”国家传染病科技重大专项（专题）“HIV感染诊断发现比例简易数学模型在江苏示范区验证推广研究”，2018ZX10715002-004，主持
完成科研项目：
1. 国家自然科学基金联合基金项目“新疆维吾尔自治区艾滋病抗病毒治疗病毒动力学与宏观疫情关联的理论流行病学模型研究”，U1503123，主持
2. “十三五”国家传染病科技重大专项（专题）“自然疫源性传染病病原流行病学特征研究与监测网络体系提升”，2018ZX10713001-001，主持
3. 国家自然科学基金-青年科学基金项目基于抗病毒治疗与艾滋病疫情的统计模型研究，81001288，主持
4. 江苏省自然科学基金重点项目“江苏省传染病相关突发公共卫生事件预测预警系统与应用研究”，BK2010079，主持
5. 江苏省科教兴卫工程项目“江苏省重大新发传染病多源监测、预警平台研究”，BL2018041，主持
近三年发表论文：
1. Fang M, Lin X, Wang C, Yang X, Li J, Chang Z, Zhang Y, Wei H, Peng Z*, Hu Z*. High cytomegalovirus viral load is associated with 182-day all-cause mortality in hospitalized people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH). Clinical Infectious Diseases. 2022 Nov:c892.
2. Tan Y, Cai Y, Sun X, Wang K, Yao R*, Wang W*, Peng Z*. A stochastic SICA model for HIV/AIDS transmission. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. 2022 Dec;165:112768.
3. Zhu Y, Zhao W, Yang X, Zhang Y, Lin X, Weng X, Wang Y, Cheng C, Chi Y, Wei H, Peng Z*, Hu Z*. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing for identification of central nervous system pathogens in HIV-infected patients. Frontiers in Microbiology. 2022 Nov;13.
4. Shen M, Sun X, Xiao Y*, Liu Y, Wang C, Wang Z, Rong L, Peng Z*. The impact of supplementary immunization activities on measles transmission dynamics and implications for measles elimination goals: A mathematical modelling study. J Theor Biol. 2022 Nov;551-552:111242.
5. Hu Z, Yin Y, Wang K, Xu M, Ding C, Song Y, Yi C, Li J, Yi Y*, Peng Z*. Impact of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines on viral shedding in B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant-infected patients. Sci China Life Sci. 2022 Jun;65(12):2556-2559.
6. Zhao S*, Peng Z*, Wang MH. A tentative assessment of the changes in transmissibility and fatality risk associated with Beta SARS-CoV-2 variants in South Africa: an ecological study. Pathog Glob Health. 2022 May;116(3):137-139.
7. Jin X, Shi L, Wang C, Qiu T, Yin Y, Shen M*, Fu G*, Peng Z*. Cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis and expanded antiretroviral therapy for preventing HIV infections in the presence of drug resistance among men who have sex with men in China: A mathematical modelling study. Lancet Reg Health West Pac. 2022 May;23:100462.
8. Jiang F, Xu Y, Liu L, Wang K, Wang L, Fu G, Wang L, Li Z, Xu J, Xing H, Wang N, Zhu Z*, Peng Z*. Construction and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting the survival of HIV/AIDS adults who received antiretroviral therapy: a cohort between 2003 and 2019 in Nanjing. BMC Public Health. 2022 Jan;22(1):30.
9. Chen B, Liu W, Chen Y, She Q, Li M, Zhao H, Zhao W, Peng Z*, Wu J*. Effect of Poor Nutritional Status and Comorbidities on the Occurrence and Outcome of Pneumonia in Elderly Adults. Front Med (Lausanne). 2021 Oct;8:719530.
10. Cheng X, Hu J, Luo L, Zhao Z, Zhang N, Hannah MN, Rui J, Lin S, Zhu Y, Wang Y, Yang M, Xu J, Liu X, Yang T, Liu W, Li P, Deng B, Li Z, Liu C, Huang J, Peng Z*, Bao C*, Chen T*. Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China. Parasit Vectors. 2021 Sep;14(1):483.
11. Liu Y, Ji W, Yin Y, Yang Z, Yang S, Zhou C, Cai Y, Wang K*, Peng Z*, He D. An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005-2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model. Math Biosci Eng. 2021 Aug;18(5):6961-6977.
12. Lu Z, Ji W, Yin Y, Jin X, Wang L, Li Z, Wang N, Wang K*, Peng Z*. Analysis on the trend of AIDS incidence in Zhejiang, China based on the age-period-cohort model (2004-2018). BMC Public Health. 2021 Jun ;21(1):1077.
13. Fang X#, Hu J#, Peng Z#, Dai Q, Liu W, Liang S, Li Z, Zhang N, Bao C. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome bunyavirus human-to-human transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 Apr;15(4):e0009037.
14. Zhong Y#, Cao Y#, Zhong X#, Peng Z#, Jiang S#, Tang T#, Chen H, Li X, Xia Y, Cheng Y, Zhao X. Immunity and coagulation and fibrinolytic processes may reduce the risk of severe illness in pregnant women with coronavirus disease 2019. Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2021 Apr;224(4):393.e1-393.e25.
15. Yin Y, Xue M, Shi L, Qiu T, Xia D, Fu G*, Peng Z*. A Noninvasive Prediction Model for Hepatitis B Virus Disease in Patients with HIV: Based on the Population of Jiangsu, China. Biomed Res Int. 2021 Mar;2021:6696041.
16. DingZ, WangK, ShenM, WangK, ZhaoS, SongW, LiR, LiZ, WangL, FengG, HuZ, WeiH, XiaoY, BaoC, HuJ, ZhuL, LiY, ChenX, YinY, WangW, CaiY, PengZ*, ShenH*. Estimating the time interval between transmission generations and the presymptomatic period by contact tracing surveillance data from 31 provinces in the mainland of China. Fundamental Research. 2021 Feb;1(2):104-110.
17. Peng Z#, Song W, Ding Z, Guan Q, Yang X, Xu Q, Wang X, Xia Y. Linking key intervention timings to rapid declining effective reproduction number to quantify lessons against COVID-19. Front Med. 2020 Oct;14(5):623-629.
18. Song WY, Zang P, Ding ZX, Fang XY, Zhu LG, Zhu Y, Bao CJ, Chen F, Wu M, Peng ZH*. Massive migration promotes the early spread of COVID-19 in China: a study based on a scale-free network. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Aug;9(1):109.
19. Li Y, Wang LW, Peng ZH*, Shen HB*. Basic reproduction number and predicted trends of coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic in the mainland of China. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Jul;9(1):94.
20. Li Y#, Zhao K#, Wei H#, Chen W#, Wang W, Jia L, Liu Q, Zhang J, Shan T, Peng Z#, Liu Y#, Yan X#. Dynamic relationship between D-dimer and COVID-19 severity. Br J Haematol. 2020 Jul;190(1):e24-e27.
21. Shen M#, Peng Z#, Guo Y, Rong L, Li Y, Xiao Y, Zhuang G, Zhang L. Assessing the effects of metropolitan-wide quarantine on the spread of COVID-19 in public space and households. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Jul;96:503-505.
22. WangK, LuZ, WangX, LiH, LiH, LinD, CaiY, FengX, SongY, FengZ, JiW, WangX, YinY, WangL*,PengZ*.Current trends and future prediction of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: a dynamical modeling analysis. Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Apr;17(4):3052-3061.
23. LiuY, JiW, YinY, CaiY, WangK*, PengZ*, HeD, WangW, An analysis on the trend of AIDS incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2004–2018 based on Age-Period-Cohort model. Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Mar;17(4):1-14.
24. 张恒之,丁中兴,沈明望,肖燕妮,彭志行*,沈洪兵*.新型冠状病毒疫情防控中的理论流行病学模型研究进展.中华预防医学杂志,2021,55(10):1256-1262.
25. 肖燕妮,李倩,周伟柯,彭志行*,唐三一*.新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情多次暴发的动力学机制分析.中华流行病学杂志,2021,42(6):966-976.
26. 彭志行#,陈旭峰,胡钦勇,胡家才,赵子平,张明智,邓思婷,徐俏俏,夏彦恺,李勇.新型冠状病毒肺炎患者重症转归风险预测.中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(10):1595-1600.
27. 宋文煜,丁中兴,胡建利,鲍倡俊,武鸣,靳桢,彭志行*,沈洪兵*.城市无尺度网络模型构建及其在新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控中的流行病学意义.中华预防医学杂志,2020,54(08):817-821.
28. 丁中兴,宋文煜,方欣玉,王凯,鲍倡俊,陈峰,沈洪兵,武鸣,彭志行*.基于SEIAQR动力学模型预测湖北省武汉市新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情趋势[J].中国卫生统计,2020,37(03):327-330+334.
29. 付之鸥,鲍昌俊,李中杰,王丽萍,李苑,冷寒冰,彭志行*.基于大数据的流感预警研究进展[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020,41(06):975-980.
30. 丁中兴,卢珍珍,王璐,汪宁,彭志行*.HIV抗病毒治疗与疫情关联的研究进展[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020(05):794-798.
31. 付之鸥,周扬,陈诚,郑洪伟,宋伟,李苑,陆伟*，彭志行*.时间序列分析与机器学习方法在预测肺结核发病趋势中的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2020,37(02):190-195.
32. 唐三一,肖燕妮,彭志行*,沈洪兵*.新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情预测建模、数据融合与防控策略分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2020(04):480-484.
软件著作权与专利：
新冠肺炎防控科普展牌（ZL202120983104.4）
新冠肺炎临床归转辅助决策系统(2020SR0212068)
新冠肺炎临床归转辅助决策系统（手机版）(2020SR0249930)
新发呼吸道传染病预测预警模型网络系统(2019SR0906252)
传染病疫情预测预警网络系统(2019SR0906246)
脑卒中后痉挛康复临床规范研究系统(2014SR125379)
脑卒中三级康复方案及临床康复路径研究电子数据管理系统 (2014SR184580)
大型队列人群健康调查数据录入管理系统 (2013SR0577385)
现场调查数据录入与管理系统软件 (2013SR128095)
江苏省中小学生不良反应监测与预警系统 (2012SR035122)
传染病疫情预测预警网络系统 (2011SR012030)